invasion of ukraine

 most of this post will be in point form.

I'll be writing from the prospective of the russian military high staff. I'll be explaining what I believe to be likely russian thinking and objectives. 

This post is intended to suppliment this tweet: https://twitter.com/Pellaken/status/1486449280772710408/photo/1 as such, please go look at it now, if you've not seen it. (if you've not seen it, what are you doing here? this is my storage blog, I really don't expect [or kinda even want] people just browsin around here. I mean, you are free to, but that's not the intended purpose of this blog.)

Here are my objectives.

1 - Capture land in the east.

2 - See if I can't replace the government in Kiev with a friendly one.

3 - Do this fast. very fast. 

To do that, here would be my military plan.

Northern front - I'd make a drive, coming from Kursk, towards the Dniper river. This is best done in the area of Kremenchuk. This is the main, most important thrust, and the most important part of my plan. It's designed to cut the east of the country off from the rest of it. After step one - which should be over in a week - this armt plays a crucial role in step 2. 

Southern Front - Instead of moving out from Crimea in strength, I move in from rebel held areas. This is my second main drive; I'd pass Mariupol (and take the city) and drive towards Crimea as fast and hard as I can. I want to create a land route, north of the sea of azov, connecting Crimea to the rest of my territory. I'll also be using this army as a crucial part of the phase 2 plan. Again, I'd try to do this in a week.

Eastern Front - A drive towards Kharkov. I want this city. It's an excellent capital of any "eastern ukraine" I may end up as my puppet nation. I will also push from the rebel held front, and try to encircle any armies I can east of Kharkov. I don't expect to reach the river in phase 1, but if we can, that'd be a nice bonus.

Western Front - A total decoy. A drive from Belarus, that'd capture Chernobyl, and, appear to drive towards Kiev. The plan is this army gets stopped in its tracks short of Kiev. This army is not designed to take Kiev, it's designed to both tie down enemy forces, and distract the world from my actually important military moves. I want the world staring at this army, while my real forces do the work.

Phase 2

After any ceasefire negotiations just so happen to fail, my armies break out. The northern army will help the Eastern army encircle any armies in the middle of Ukraine. They have 3 large cities in the area, and I want to encircle them and cut off armies in the area from the rest of Ukraine. My aim is to capture the majority of the enemy army in this pocket. 

My southern forces will make a drive towards Odessa. I need this port; Ukraine can threaten me from it, and my control over the area gives me access to friendly areas of Moldova.

My Northern army will be backed up by additional troops from Russia and drive towards Kiev. With Ukraine, hopefully, distracted by my invasion west of the river, they won't be expecting a drive from the east. Only when the army closes in, would the western army actually try to encircle Kiev. 

My hopeful end state is not only control over the regions I want - with the exception of any pocket in the middle of the country - but control of Kiev so I can install a friendly government. If parts of western Ukraine declare independence, this is a massive win for me, as, it means the remainder of the country becomes easier to control now that it has less pro-west voters in it. 

Should there be failures, I'll be willing to hand back the donbass areas, held by rebels, but I'm not giving Crimea back, ever, and will fire nuclear weapons at anyone who tries to take it.