invasion of ukraine

 most of this post will be in point form.

I'll be writing from the prospective of the russian military high staff. I'll be explaining what I believe to be likely russian thinking and objectives. 

This post is intended to suppliment this tweet: https://twitter.com/Pellaken/status/1486449280772710408/photo/1 as such, please go look at it now, if you've not seen it. (if you've not seen it, what are you doing here? this is my storage blog, I really don't expect [or kinda even want] people just browsin around here. I mean, you are free to, but that's not the intended purpose of this blog.)

Here are my objectives.

1 - Capture land in the east.

2 - See if I can't replace the government in Kiev with a friendly one.

3 - Do this fast. very fast. 

To do that, here would be my military plan.

Northern front - I'd make a drive, coming from Kursk, towards the Dniper river. This is best done in the area of Kremenchuk. This is the main, most important thrust, and the most important part of my plan. It's designed to cut the east of the country off from the rest of it. After step one - which should be over in a week - this armt plays a crucial role in step 2. 

Southern Front - Instead of moving out from Crimea in strength, I move in from rebel held areas. This is my second main drive; I'd pass Mariupol (and take the city) and drive towards Crimea as fast and hard as I can. I want to create a land route, north of the sea of azov, connecting Crimea to the rest of my territory. I'll also be using this army as a crucial part of the phase 2 plan. Again, I'd try to do this in a week.

Eastern Front - A drive towards Kharkov. I want this city. It's an excellent capital of any "eastern ukraine" I may end up as my puppet nation. I will also push from the rebel held front, and try to encircle any armies I can east of Kharkov. I don't expect to reach the river in phase 1, but if we can, that'd be a nice bonus.

Western Front - A total decoy. A drive from Belarus, that'd capture Chernobyl, and, appear to drive towards Kiev. The plan is this army gets stopped in its tracks short of Kiev. This army is not designed to take Kiev, it's designed to both tie down enemy forces, and distract the world from my actually important military moves. I want the world staring at this army, while my real forces do the work.

Phase 2

After any ceasefire negotiations just so happen to fail, my armies break out. The northern army will help the Eastern army encircle any armies in the middle of Ukraine. They have 3 large cities in the area, and I want to encircle them and cut off armies in the area from the rest of Ukraine. My aim is to capture the majority of the enemy army in this pocket. 

My southern forces will make a drive towards Odessa. I need this port; Ukraine can threaten me from it, and my control over the area gives me access to friendly areas of Moldova.

My Northern army will be backed up by additional troops from Russia and drive towards Kiev. With Ukraine, hopefully, distracted by my invasion west of the river, they won't be expecting a drive from the east. Only when the army closes in, would the western army actually try to encircle Kiev. 

My hopeful end state is not only control over the regions I want - with the exception of any pocket in the middle of the country - but control of Kiev so I can install a friendly government. If parts of western Ukraine declare independence, this is a massive win for me, as, it means the remainder of the country becomes easier to control now that it has less pro-west voters in it. 

Should there be failures, I'll be willing to hand back the donbass areas, held by rebels, but I'm not giving Crimea back, ever, and will fire nuclear weapons at anyone who tries to take it. 

Star Trek stuff

 This is the 2nd post in a series where I've not made the first post yet. The first post (which will come second) will discuss the reasons for changing Star Trek so Picard dies during the Best of Both Worlds. 

This will require changes in all subsequent episodes. Those changes are what I'd like to detail. I will not re-write every line of every script; instead, I'll note when and where there are major changes. Lets begin with Season 4.

The first episode will be the close of the Best of Both Worlds, where Picard actually dies. After that, things change as follows:

I am going to swap episode "The Minds Eye" with episode "Brothers". Meaning The Minds Eye now becomes the 3rd episode of the season, and Brothers becomes the 24th. 

Next, I'm going to swap "The Minds Eye" with 6th season episode "Second Chances" with a key change. It's not Riker who got duplicated, but Tasha Yar. 

I know that episode had not yet been conceived; but the main point is to get a duplicate of Yar so we can bring her back to the show. I've simply decided to do this by stealing a 6th season episode; however, you could also say she'd been preserved in stasis by the Romulans, or, some other scheme. 

The episode "Family" sees the Picard plot replaced with a Data plot, with Data realizing the Enterprise crew is his family. Alongside this, Data gets promoted to First Officer (getting promoted to Commander) and thus gets a nice red uniform. Worf gets promoted to ops, but keeps his uniform and rank. 

By Episode 4 (Suddenly Human) the 'new' crew is in place. Yar is "promoted" from Jr.Lt. she was in the last episode to Lt. Riker in the Captain's chair. Data beside him. Yar behind them. Worf in front of them. This episode will require a re-write to replace Picard with Riker. 

Episode "Legacy" will require minor changes; remember that Yar has not been around for many years; also Yar should be the one that is mainly 'betrayed'

In "Future Imperfect" Data should make a comment that Riker keeps ignoring him when he says he should not go on away missions.

"Final Mission" will require major re-working. Riker should not replace Picard. Who should replace Picard? I don't know; Perhaps Wesley's mother. Perhaps the episode should be scrapped and replace with a unique plot. 

"First Contact" should see Riker replace with Yar. 

"Qpid" needs its sparking plot totally replaced. It should pretty much be the same episode, a robin hood parody, but the events leading to it starting need changing. This is not to say I like the episode, or think it is a good idea, only that in a realistic universe, where we are only changing Patrick Stewart leaving Star Trek, the episode probably will get made anyway, and I'm just here to describe such a universe, and not totally re-make it in an idealized image. 

"The Host" should see Geordi take over the symbiont. Or, alternatively, re-pace the episode and see Yar do it. 

"Brothers" will appear next; and it will play out as it does in our reality.

Season 5 is the one that will end up seeing changes to two major episodes. The first of those is "Darmok", which now will have Riker in Picard's place. 

"Ensign Ro", hopefully would see changes to see that the actor hired to play her, will stick around for DS9. I will continue writing this as though that is the case, and, thus, assume Nana Visitor is hired. This could/would be done due to Stewart leaving after only 3 seasons, and thus wanting longer contracts with actors.

"Silicon Avatar" sees Riker's role replaced with Yar. 

"The Game" will see a somewhat minor change, with Yar being the one to bring the game back instead of Riker.

"Power Play" again would see Yar replace Riker.

"The Outcast", again, sees Yar replace Riker, with a change in the actor for Soren as needed to satisfy early 90s's American sensibilities. In fact, from here on in, presume Yar replaces Riker unless I say otherwise.

"The Perfect Mate" would be scrapped, and replaced with an episode that better plays to who Riker is as a person.

"The Inner Light" would probably work best as a Crusher episode.

"Rascals" should be scrapped and replaced with something that works better for the new crew.

"Chain of Command" should be delayed until DS9 is airing. Riker replaces Picard. 

"Tapestry" would need major changes. Perhaps it needs to be replaced with an episode that better fits Riker.

"Lessons" would need to be scrapped and replaced; this time by a Yar episode. 

"Frame of Mind", just to be clear, also has Yar replace Riker.

If you recall, we swapped "Second Chances" with "The Minds Eye", which would see the Sela role replaced with either Tomalak, or, even better, retained. 

"Timescape", Worf would replace Data.

Season 7 would see Worf promoted to Lt.Cmdr. 

"Liaisons" would be scrapped and replaced.

"Gambit" would see major changes, it would now be based around something only Riker can do (VS Archeology and Picard), and Data, not Riker, would be captured; with Riker "re programming" Data (IE doing nothing and telling Data to play along) with the Enterprise part of the plot seeing Interim Captain Worf and Interim First Officer Yar come to loggerheads over a few issues. 

"Attached" would have Riker and Troi as the main couple. 

"Pegasus" would see Captain Riker struggle with the Admiral.

In "Thine Own Self" Troi will reference Worf's promotion as one reason to seek a promotion as well.

For "Genesis" Picard's role would be replaced by Yar.

"Bloodlines" would be scrapped and replaced.

"Preemptive Strike" would be scrapped and replaced.

"All Good Things" would be see heavy changes; with Data replacing Picard as the focus. A lot of the Q stuff will, of course, need to be re-worked; with the final confrontation with Q having the same 4 characters as in the first episode, but from different times. Early Picard. Current Troi. Future Yar. and Data, of course. Instead of addressing just Picard, Q would address "humanity". Other changes would need to be made as well.

In DS9 you would see Kira replaced with Ro; who would be wearing a Starfleet uniform, in that very first scene where we meet her, but would mention she's been commissioned as a Major by Bajor (and thus, we'll see her in Bajoran uniform from here on in) and would still make disparaging remarks on starfleet and their treatment of the border worlds (maquis stuff)