invasion of ukraine

 most of this post will be in point form.

I'll be writing from the prospective of the russian military high staff. I'll be explaining what I believe to be likely russian thinking and objectives. 

This post is intended to suppliment this tweet: https://twitter.com/Pellaken/status/1486449280772710408/photo/1 as such, please go look at it now, if you've not seen it. (if you've not seen it, what are you doing here? this is my storage blog, I really don't expect [or kinda even want] people just browsin around here. I mean, you are free to, but that's not the intended purpose of this blog.)

Here are my objectives.

1 - Capture land in the east.

2 - See if I can't replace the government in Kiev with a friendly one.

3 - Do this fast. very fast. 

To do that, here would be my military plan.

Northern front - I'd make a drive, coming from Kursk, towards the Dniper river. This is best done in the area of Kremenchuk. This is the main, most important thrust, and the most important part of my plan. It's designed to cut the east of the country off from the rest of it. After step one - which should be over in a week - this armt plays a crucial role in step 2. 

Southern Front - Instead of moving out from Crimea in strength, I move in from rebel held areas. This is my second main drive; I'd pass Mariupol (and take the city) and drive towards Crimea as fast and hard as I can. I want to create a land route, north of the sea of azov, connecting Crimea to the rest of my territory. I'll also be using this army as a crucial part of the phase 2 plan. Again, I'd try to do this in a week.

Eastern Front - A drive towards Kharkov. I want this city. It's an excellent capital of any "eastern ukraine" I may end up as my puppet nation. I will also push from the rebel held front, and try to encircle any armies I can east of Kharkov. I don't expect to reach the river in phase 1, but if we can, that'd be a nice bonus.

Western Front - A total decoy. A drive from Belarus, that'd capture Chernobyl, and, appear to drive towards Kiev. The plan is this army gets stopped in its tracks short of Kiev. This army is not designed to take Kiev, it's designed to both tie down enemy forces, and distract the world from my actually important military moves. I want the world staring at this army, while my real forces do the work.

Phase 2

After any ceasefire negotiations just so happen to fail, my armies break out. The northern army will help the Eastern army encircle any armies in the middle of Ukraine. They have 3 large cities in the area, and I want to encircle them and cut off armies in the area from the rest of Ukraine. My aim is to capture the majority of the enemy army in this pocket. 

My southern forces will make a drive towards Odessa. I need this port; Ukraine can threaten me from it, and my control over the area gives me access to friendly areas of Moldova.

My Northern army will be backed up by additional troops from Russia and drive towards Kiev. With Ukraine, hopefully, distracted by my invasion west of the river, they won't be expecting a drive from the east. Only when the army closes in, would the western army actually try to encircle Kiev. 

My hopeful end state is not only control over the regions I want - with the exception of any pocket in the middle of the country - but control of Kiev so I can install a friendly government. If parts of western Ukraine declare independence, this is a massive win for me, as, it means the remainder of the country becomes easier to control now that it has less pro-west voters in it. 

Should there be failures, I'll be willing to hand back the donbass areas, held by rebels, but I'm not giving Crimea back, ever, and will fire nuclear weapons at anyone who tries to take it. 

Star Trek stuff

 This is the 2nd post in a series where I've not made the first post yet. The first post (which will come second) will discuss the reasons for changing Star Trek so Picard dies during the Best of Both Worlds. 

This will require changes in all subsequent episodes. Those changes are what I'd like to detail. I will not re-write every line of every script; instead, I'll note when and where there are major changes. Lets begin with Season 4.

The first episode will be the close of the Best of Both Worlds, where Picard actually dies. After that, things change as follows:

I am going to swap episode "The Minds Eye" with episode "Brothers". Meaning The Minds Eye now becomes the 3rd episode of the season, and Brothers becomes the 24th. 

Next, I'm going to swap "The Minds Eye" with 6th season episode "Second Chances" with a key change. It's not Riker who got duplicated, but Tasha Yar. 

I know that episode had not yet been conceived; but the main point is to get a duplicate of Yar so we can bring her back to the show. I've simply decided to do this by stealing a 6th season episode; however, you could also say she'd been preserved in stasis by the Romulans, or, some other scheme. 

The episode "Family" sees the Picard plot replaced with a Data plot, with Data realizing the Enterprise crew is his family. Alongside this, Data gets promoted to First Officer (getting promoted to Commander) and thus gets a nice red uniform. Worf gets promoted to ops, but keeps his uniform and rank. 

By Episode 4 (Suddenly Human) the 'new' crew is in place. Yar is "promoted" from Jr.Lt. she was in the last episode to Lt. Riker in the Captain's chair. Data beside him. Yar behind them. Worf in front of them. This episode will require a re-write to replace Picard with Riker. 

Episode "Legacy" will require minor changes; remember that Yar has not been around for many years; also Yar should be the one that is mainly 'betrayed'

In "Future Imperfect" Data should make a comment that Riker keeps ignoring him when he says he should not go on away missions.

"Final Mission" will require major re-working. Riker should not replace Picard. Who should replace Picard? I don't know; Perhaps Wesley's mother. Perhaps the episode should be scrapped and replace with a unique plot. 

"First Contact" should see Riker replace with Yar. 

"Qpid" needs its sparking plot totally replaced. It should pretty much be the same episode, a robin hood parody, but the events leading to it starting need changing. This is not to say I like the episode, or think it is a good idea, only that in a realistic universe, where we are only changing Patrick Stewart leaving Star Trek, the episode probably will get made anyway, and I'm just here to describe such a universe, and not totally re-make it in an idealized image. 

"The Host" should see Geordi take over the symbiont. Or, alternatively, re-pace the episode and see Yar do it. 

"Brothers" will appear next; and it will play out as it does in our reality.

Season 5 is the one that will end up seeing changes to two major episodes. The first of those is "Darmok", which now will have Riker in Picard's place. 

"Ensign Ro", hopefully would see changes to see that the actor hired to play her, will stick around for DS9. I will continue writing this as though that is the case, and, thus, assume Nana Visitor is hired. This could/would be done due to Stewart leaving after only 3 seasons, and thus wanting longer contracts with actors.

"Silicon Avatar" sees Riker's role replaced with Yar. 

"The Game" will see a somewhat minor change, with Yar being the one to bring the game back instead of Riker.

"Power Play" again would see Yar replace Riker.

"The Outcast", again, sees Yar replace Riker, with a change in the actor for Soren as needed to satisfy early 90s's American sensibilities. In fact, from here on in, presume Yar replaces Riker unless I say otherwise.

"The Perfect Mate" would be scrapped, and replaced with an episode that better plays to who Riker is as a person.

"The Inner Light" would probably work best as a Crusher episode.

"Rascals" should be scrapped and replaced with something that works better for the new crew.

"Chain of Command" should be delayed until DS9 is airing. Riker replaces Picard. 

"Tapestry" would need major changes. Perhaps it needs to be replaced with an episode that better fits Riker.

"Lessons" would need to be scrapped and replaced; this time by a Yar episode. 

"Frame of Mind", just to be clear, also has Yar replace Riker.

If you recall, we swapped "Second Chances" with "The Minds Eye", which would see the Sela role replaced with either Tomalak, or, even better, retained. 

"Timescape", Worf would replace Data.

Season 7 would see Worf promoted to Lt.Cmdr. 

"Liaisons" would be scrapped and replaced.

"Gambit" would see major changes, it would now be based around something only Riker can do (VS Archeology and Picard), and Data, not Riker, would be captured; with Riker "re programming" Data (IE doing nothing and telling Data to play along) with the Enterprise part of the plot seeing Interim Captain Worf and Interim First Officer Yar come to loggerheads over a few issues. 

"Attached" would have Riker and Troi as the main couple. 

"Pegasus" would see Captain Riker struggle with the Admiral.

In "Thine Own Self" Troi will reference Worf's promotion as one reason to seek a promotion as well.

For "Genesis" Picard's role would be replaced by Yar.

"Bloodlines" would be scrapped and replaced.

"Preemptive Strike" would be scrapped and replaced.

"All Good Things" would be see heavy changes; with Data replacing Picard as the focus. A lot of the Q stuff will, of course, need to be re-worked; with the final confrontation with Q having the same 4 characters as in the first episode, but from different times. Early Picard. Current Troi. Future Yar. and Data, of course. Instead of addressing just Picard, Q would address "humanity". Other changes would need to be made as well.

In DS9 you would see Kira replaced with Ro; who would be wearing a Starfleet uniform, in that very first scene where we meet her, but would mention she's been commissioned as a Major by Bajor (and thus, we'll see her in Bajoran uniform from here on in) and would still make disparaging remarks on starfleet and their treatment of the border worlds (maquis stuff)

What makes a car "Reliable"

 If I buy a new car, and, want something "Reliable", this is what I want:

The vehicle never strands you

A Reliable vehicle never gets you stuck on the roadside. This means whatever problems the vehicle has are not problems that will result in you being stuck. Vehicles known for destroying their own engines are thus not reliable, even if the body lasts forever. 

The vehicle will last 20 years or more

A Reliable vehicle is one that lasts. The average age of a vehicle is over a decade; but to be reliable, a vehicle needs to last longer. This means the vehicle should not have catastrophic things that tend to happen after 15 or so years of ownership. 

The vehicle can be mistreated and still run well

A Reliable vehicle is one that will run and run well even when you neglect it. All vehicles should be treated well, but a reliable vehicle is one that can handle missed regular maintenance appointments and yet still work well. 

The vehicle is cheap to repairs and maintain

A Reliable vehicle does not bankrupt you with maintenance. Some vehicles are difficult to work on and have high labour costs, while others have parts that are expensive to acquire, and others have so many cheap parts break often that repairs add up.

No vehicle is perfect, but a reliable vehicle is all of these.

You will not find a vehicle that scores 100% in all these categories, A vehicle that has a 95% in all but one of these categories, but a 5% in that last category is not reliable. One that has 70% in every category, is reliable by comparison. 

This is important because it is important to look at what reliability is not.

Reliability is not an ugly car.

Measuring reliability by simply totalling the problems with a vehicle one by one means that ugly cars; those with damaged trim pieces or squeaky windows, end up being seen as not reliable. Measures that consider such things in their metrics are not worth your time. (Worst Offenders: Youtubers)

Reliability is not measured over the first 6 months.

Suggestions that reliability can be measured by looking at the first 6 months of a car's lifespan are as ludicrous as they are offensive. Manufacturers love such stats as, obviously, they present a low number of problems per car, compared to longer studies. Do not pay any attention to them. (Worst Offender: J.D. Power)

Reliability is not how cars work when at their best.

All vehicles that are operated as the manufacturer recommends will run well. This is not reliability. Reliability is measuring a vehicle at its worst. Even a Yugo can be reliable if maintained well enough, that does not make Yugo a reliable car brand. (Worst Offender: Car and Driver)

Reliability is not measured independent of cost

People who want a reliable car want one because they have limited amounts of money. This means the car needs to be designed to be easy to work on; that it needs to have affordable parts, and expensive parts that do not often break, and needs to have had reliability in mind at the design phase. (Worst Offender: Consumer Reports)

With this is mind, we can look at some specific examples:

The cost of any car's "known issues" must be factored in.

Some old Toyotas that are 20 years older or more have manual gearboxes where the 5th gear no longer works properly. Replacement could cost $1500; perhaps double that, or perhaps half that. Such a cost needs to be kept in mind when asking if Toyotas with these gearboxes are reliable. 

Lexus's of the era can have leaky power steering pumps; and that leaks right on to the alternator. The cost for this can be $500, again, half to double; though, regular maintenance can cut this cost.  

GM Northstar engines are known for head gasket problems.

The list can go on and on; but, any similar "known issue" must be kept in mind when looking at if a car is reliable. Sadly, the only way to know this for sure, is to wait 20 years. 

The cost of any car's "expected issues" must be factored in.

Early CVT's, for example - those from before, say, 2016?, have been known to be problematic unless meticulously cared for. It remains to be seen if modern CVT's (those since 2016) are more reliable or not. 

This guide will help you understand what a "Reliable" car is, at least, as defined by me. 

dinky cars

 when I was younger, I had a number of dinky cars. little die cast toy cars. not all of them were actually made by dinky; I remember majorette and hot wheels in particular. the good news is I found lists for all 3, as well as matchbox. I can't find a corgi made list, but, am compiling a full list of cars I am 100% certain I had. here is the list so far: 

https://majorette-model-cars.fandom.com/wiki/Porsche_Turbo
https://majorette-model-cars.fandom.com/wiki/Volkswagen_Golf_GTi_(Mk_II)
https://majorette-model-cars.fandom.com/wiki/Cadillac_Stretch_Limousine
https://majorette-model-cars.fandom.com/wiki/Citro%C3%ABn_XM
https://matchbox.fandom.com/wiki/%2757_Chevy
https://matchbox.fandom.com/wiki/Saab_9000_Turbo
https://matchbox.fandom.com/wiki/Ferrari_F40
https://matchbox.fandom.com/wiki/1987_Corvette
https://matchbox.fandom.com/wiki/GMC_Wrecker
https://matchbox.fandom.com/wiki/Ferrari_Testarossa_(K-149)
https://matchbox.fandom.com/wiki/1984_Dodge_Daytona_Turbo_Z
https://hotwheels.fandom.com/wiki/Blown_Camaro
https://hotwheels.fandom.com/wiki/Turbo_Heater
https://hotwheels.fandom.com/wiki/Malibu_Grand_Prix

https://hotwheels.fandom.com/wiki/Talbot_Lago

https://hotwheels.fandom.com/wiki/Alien

https://hotwheels.fandom.com/wiki/Purple_Passion

https://hotwheels.fandom.com/wiki/Vector_%22Avtech%22_WX-3

I remember having many, many cars up to about 1995 when I moved. This is also about the time it was probably decided I give some of them to my little brother. I don't really remember having many, if any, of the toys after I moved.

what makes a cold war, a cold war

 lack of war.

okay, okay, this sounds stupid, but let me explain.

We've only had one, widely recognized, cold war, in our history. As such, we need to take our main lessons from that 'conflict'. 

the TLDR of the conflict was that the US and USSR opposed one another, but didn't directly have a 'total war' war with one another.

When did the war start. Was it in 1919 when the USSR was 'founded'? No. Most literature says it started in 1949. Some might say in 1945, others in 1947, but 1949 seems the more popular option. What happened in 1949? The berlin airlift.

I could go into detail of what exactly the berlin airlift was, but, I'll summarize it instead:

It was an event where the US and USSR almost went to war. But didn't. 

To TLDR the entire above; a cold war is when you almost go to war, but don't go to war. 

Or

Lack of war. 

So. Why am I making this post? China. And the USA.

Are they in a cold war?

No.

Why not?

There's yet to be an event where they almost go to war, but don't go to war. 

So what are we in?

Pre-war. Pre-cold war.

Just as 1938 was "Pre WW2", and, everyone knew WW2 was coming, we are in the "pre" period to the second cold war. 

We are just waiting for that triggering "spark" that turns this from a pre cold war, into a cold war. 

the future, part 1

This is a post that I've spent a very long time trying to write. In fact, since about 2005, I've been trying to express it properly, and I've never been able to. Until now. Let's begin slowly and softly with this graphic. It shows the situation in the far future, where corporations have become so interconnected by webs of ownership, that nearly every corporation on the planet is owned by one of 7 other corporation, and each of those, is owned by individuals, or, their families. 

This is an example of what that might look like. 

I'll pick this up in another post shortly. 

Why I unfollow people on twitch

 This is an updated version of two earlier posts, where I tried to outline why I follow people on twitch. I've realized, that's not how I operate. I follow people for too many reasons. However, I unfollow people for a very narrow and specific set of reasons that I want to outline to help people understand why I've unfollowed them, or, simply stopped watching them.

1 - You don't stream enough. Some people take long breaks in streaming, if this happens, I can unfollow. All you need to do to get me to follow back is start streaming again.

2 - You don't talk enough. A lot of the people I follow on twitch are not very big streamers, as such, there's a need to fill the 'dead air'. You need to talk. You've not been talking enough. You can get me to return by talking more.

3 - You don't have quality options. I've made other posts about this, and if I've followed you, I've shared the post with you. You've decided that quality options are not important. You can get me back as a follower by getting quality options on the regular. 

4 - You speak before you read. This annoys me greatly. Some people see 2 chat messages waiting to be read, read one of them, and then start responding to that first message. During this time, additional chat messages build up. I watch enough twitch (over 40 hours a week for the past 3+ months) to see the difference between partners, and non-partners, and THIS is the difference. Do not respond to a chat message when there are more chat messages to read. You can respond to it once you've caught up with chat. Additionally, you need to learn the skill of reading one thing while saying another thing. This is a skill. You need to learn it. You can convince me to come back simply by making an effort to learn this skill.

5 - You keep playing multiplayer games. These are not for me. They distract the streamer. I watch twitch to interact with streamers. If I just wanted to watch someone play video games, I'd go to youtube. Multiplayer games tend to see the streamer interact with other players. I want you to interact with me! If I didn't, I wouldn't be watching. This is a hard fix, as, it requires playing less games you like, and it may simply be that you as a streamer and I as a viewer are simply not compatible. 

6 - You are a jerk. This one is very rare, as, I tend to notice someone is a jerk before following in the first place. Not really sure how to fix this one. Seems like a personal issue for the streamer.